Season 2: Werewolf - Shadow Pine - Day 3

I don't get the kill Tbird theory, we should kill either Pascal or Glendon. And, let's be honest here, we should kill Pascal. The guy is just asking for it.

glendon wrote:

Or I'll vote Pascal or Romulus, if that's the way the wind is blowing. Though it sure gives me pause to vote against the only guy who's defending me. It just makes more sense to me to determine which of those two is guilty by picking off their potential quieter partners, starting with Tbird.

Given that I've been fairly suspicious you and Romulus are the pairing, putting your money where your mouth is would be a fairly convincing argument against that.

Mongoose that wouldn't prove anything. You would just say I saved face and murdered my partner and accuse me all over again.

Seer, if you have information about at least one other person, we can win the game if you speak up now, especially if it's a wolf other than tbird. You will expose yourself today and guarantee being night killed. However, yourself, Termy, and the verified villagers/wolves narrows the field considerably.

glendon wrote:

Mongoose that wouldn't prove anything. You would just say I saved face and murdered my partner and accuse me all over again.

Seer, if you have information about at least one other person, we can win the game if you speak up now, especially if it's a wolf other than tbird. You will expose yourself today and guarantee being night killed. However, yourself, Termy, and the verified villagers/wolves narrows the field considerably.

What I've seen from you so far is you and Romulus working together, people suspecting you, now you both throw us a bone by putting out half-hearted accusations of the other, and you refusing to back it up.

Half hearted?

Village, it took a whole day to analyze and map every single word the village has said. Look at it again, it's completely accurate in its summation of what has been said. Even included is me and Romulus as a pair. That's an awful amount of work just to incriminate myself. Since most people have just disregarded it, if it was a bluff I could have just tweeked it so we don't appear as a pair.

I have done more pushing and needling and overall investigating than anyone here, but I don't just vote for anyone. Take Pascal. For all my focus on him, I have never once voted him because I wasn't sure. I needed to see what he would do and who he would divert blame to under pressure. I still have strong suspicions it's him, but I'm not going to vote him off over someone I know even less about.

Even when Romulus was the only one to back me up, I not once backed him up, and corrected every single suspicious point he made. Go back to his focus on Witty, or his play right now to rush kill Pascal. If this is teamwork, it's pretty one-sided and my pressure on Romulus goes back before Mongoose pointed out him defending me.

And no, Mongoose, I'm not going to vote for Romulus over a quiet person. If he's revealed to be innocent, then you've pressured me to waste a vote, and you'll still say it's me. If he's guilty*, then great, but then you'll just use against me as well. There is no convincing you either way, so screw it.


*if Romulus is guilty, his accomplice is Nocturne. Or, according to the chart I created, me.

Man, hang a clock on this fool because Mongoose is totally being Pascal's hype man right now.

Do we kill the silent or the heretic?

A shepherd must protect his sheep from the wolves.

VOTE: ROMULUS

Jesus christ on the cross. This is insane.

UNVOTE: PASCAL (I've given my vote to Term and forgot to unvote)

Seeing as how we are in dire straits here is a last plea for sanity to my brothers in arms (TBird, Noc, Mongoose and technically Pascal).
The four of you have each voted for either myself or Glendon. Here's the problem: I am innocent and I believe that Glendon is as well. Therefore, I am confident the two wolves are among you four. If you're a villager that narrows it down to 3 candidates for 2 positions. Those are great odds! So--for the love of Peter, Paul and Mary--kill one of them!


Addendum: Unfortunately the logical side of me does, feels a stubborn obligation to point out that Glendon and I each have two votes.. Since y'all seem (very zealously) convinced that Glendon and I are in cahoots then you should probably just go ahead and combine the votes and kill one of us. *Or kill Pascal/Mongoose, it's not too late to see the light!

Abstaining from voting myself and giving my vote to Termy which reminds me of why I think that's a good idea. My logic:

CURRENT SCENARIO wrote:

7 independent votes with 2 guaranteed to be placed by wolves

Voter1's odds of choosing a wolf: 33%
Voter2's odds of choosing a wolf: 33%
Voter3's odds of choosing a wolf: 33%
Voter4's odds of choosing a wolf: 33%
Voter5's odds of choosing a wolf: 33%
Voter6's odds of choosing a wolf: 0%
Voter7's odds of choosing a wolf: 0%
Overall odds: under 25%

TERMY AS DICTATOR SCENARIO wrote:

1 voter decides who is lynched thereby bypassing the ability of the two wolves to interfere

Voter1's odds of choosing a wolf: 33%
Overall odds: under 33%

The only justification for NOT doing this would be if Termy was less intelligent than the average voter. So basically, unless you feel that the average villager is more than 35% smarter than ol' simpleton Term, give Termy your vote. BUT, if you think Term is dumb and stupid then keep your vote for yourself (hint: if you think that, not only are you impolite, you're wrong; Termy is a God among men).

Romulus isn't voting for Termy, he's giving Termy the power to choose his vote.

Romulus wrote:

Seeing as how we are in dire straits here is a last plea for sanity to my brothers in arms (TBird, Noc, Mongoose and technically Pascal).
The four of you have each voted for either myself or Glendon. Here's the problem: I am innocent and I believe that Glendon is as well. Therefore, I am confident the two wolves are among you four. If you're a villager that narrows it down to 3 candidates for 2 positions. Those are great odds! So--for the love of Peter, Paul and Mary--kill one of them!

You need to make a better argument for your innocence before you make the appeal to probabilities.  If any two people are innocent, we get the same odds!

Thank you.

Romulus wrote:

 Here's the problem: I am innocent and I believe that Glendon is as well. Therefore, I am confident the two wolves are among you four. If you're a villager that narrows it down to 3 candidates for 2 positions. Those are great odds! So--for the love of Peter, Paul and Mary--kill one of them!

I know that you're not going to incriminate yourself, but trying to convince other based on literally less than nothing is a bit of a stretch.  Even going back further (I'm not going to dig for it, it happened though) Romulus had tried to instruct others on how to vote.  He's a little bossy for someone who's not above suspicion himself.

I'd like to see Termy's take on all of this, seeing as he is the only confirmed innocent among us. 

glendon wrote:

Seer, if you have information about at least one other person, we can win the game if you speak up now, especially if it's a wolf other than tbird. You will expose yourself today and guarantee being night killed. However, yourself, Termy, and the verified villagers/wolves narrows the field considerably.

In other words: "Seer, you should sacrifice yourself to prove my point".  I vote no.

i'm overwhelmed, i guess i'm not as smart as you thought i would be....

It's easy.  Vote for Romulus.  Then we get to laugh since he promised to copy your vote.

Pascal_B wrote:

It's easy.  Vote for Romulus.  Then we get to laugh since he promised to copy your vote.

Reminds me of the approach the game master in instructed to take in the similarly back-stab-y and conniving Paranoia(great game): what is most entertaining wins.

Villagers, Mongoose will attack this post as it does play into his gambit that Romulus and I are protecting each other. I ask you to consider my words carefully and ignore his protest for a moment. To accept this post, you must first consider my innocence.

Nocturne's vote for Romulus pretty much cements their innocence to me. I don't see why Nocturne would vote for him when Romulus has not accused him of anything. He could just as easily voted for me at a time when my theory of him being a possible wolf in 2 possible pairings gaining little traction. It was not a defensive vote.

Which leaves me two possibilities: Tbird & Mongoose or Pascal & Mongoose. Mongoose is pushing this story that Romulus and I are partners, and only started as soon as we accused Pascal. He is defending him. These two have worked the hardest to discredit me.

Or, Mongoose is trying to vote me out because Tbird showed up as the most red flags in my analysis and saw Romulus' support as his way to do it.  Tbird's strategy of remaining out of the fray is unchanged, though he has voted for me. For Tbird, however, was before was my accusation of Pascal. Remember, though, Tbird says very little of anything. So ask how much his vote means to you.

Villagers, understand you are being played. You will have to decide whether it is by Romulus and I or Mongoose and his partner. I propose you this. Leave Romulus out of it for now. Whether you vote for Mongoose now or later, I bet my life it's him. I ask for the benefit of the doubt now and allow my theory to play out. If we kill him and and he's innocent, I have no defense and you can just kill me right away. You'll get to kill Romulus the round after as well and win if I'm lying.

But if you kill him first, we will have enough chances to figure out if his partner is Pascal or Tbird.

Pascal, I have not ruled you out yet. But if you are a villager, understand the chance that Mongoose is a wolf is very real. Fight the battle for your innocence after he's dead.

Unvote: Tbird


Vote: Mongoose

glendon wrote:

I don't see why Nocturne would vote for him when Romulus has not accused him of anything. He could just as easily voted for me at a time when my theory of him being a possible wolf in 2 possible pairings gaining little traction. It was not a defensive vote.

Maybe he voted for him because of the overall suspiciousness of you two, as opposed to any selfish concern, like say trying to foist the attention you have onto me.

I'd like for a villager to respond for once.

Yeah, I'm just going to go ahead and be a dick and just say this:

Wolfs: Pascal and Mongoose
Good people to play with: Glendon and Termy (and Mr. Slippy)
Awful people to play with: Manygrams and Greenwood
Awful, awful, awful, awful people to play with: TBird and Nocturne

Honestly, now I see how Jackie and Angi felt..

I view you and Glendon as equally likely suspects, so let me hasten your way away from misery:


UNVOTE: glendon


VOTE:  Romulus