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 Season 2: Werewolf - Shadow Pine - Day 3

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glendon

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PostSubject: Re: Season 2: Werewolf - Shadow Pine - Day 3   10/10/2014, 10:17 am

How disrespectful. You asked questions and I answered. Understand since you are the only confirmed villager it makes sense for me to argue my innocence to you.

But if that's the way this game is going.

I VOTE Glendon


Get me out of here.
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Termy

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PostSubject: Re: Season 2: Werewolf - Shadow Pine - Day 3   10/10/2014, 10:23 am

How disrespectful? ... I'm sorry, I need reading comprehension.... how disrespectful is that?

Screw yourself.
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Pascal_B

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PostSubject: Re: Season 2: Werewolf - Shadow Pine - Day 3   10/10/2014, 10:30 am



Guys, I think we need to simmer down. Shit's getting real.
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Termy

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PostSubject: Re: Season 2: Werewolf - Shadow Pine - Day 3   10/10/2014, 10:49 am

Real life: lol Pascal, I don't take these things seriously. I'm sure Glendon is also the same.
Glendon and I are good friends
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glendon

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PostSubject: Re: Season 2: Werewolf - Shadow Pine - Day 3   10/10/2014, 10:58 am

Glendon here: Yeah were fine. Don't worry. It's a game.
glendon here: I HATE YOU ALL (except Romulus, and especially Termy)
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Pascal_B

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PostSubject: Re: Season 2: Werewolf - Shadow Pine - Day 3   10/10/2014, 11:09 am

Fair enough.  I'm still waiting on Romulus to respond to his lies.
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Termy

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PostSubject: Re: Season 2: Werewolf - Shadow Pine - Day 3   10/10/2014, 11:11 am

I'm still waiting on Nocturne...

By the way, can you vote for yourself? If so, risky strategy to deflect attention.
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Romulus

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PostSubject: Re: Season 2: Werewolf - Shadow Pine - Day 3   10/10/2014, 12:16 pm

Pascal: In regards to attributing to Tbird's quote to you. That's my bad. In the interest of making quotes-within-quotes-within-quotes not take up so much space and have their message diluted, I mistakenly attributed the quote to you. The question, however, of why Glendon was a wolf was still applicable though so it's good to see that finally get answered.

Pascal wrote:
Glendon is in favour of keeping silent villagers.
Silent villagers benefit the werwolves.
Thus, Glendon is rooting for team werewolf.

I will accept that "people that defend silent villagers" and "werewolves" share common ground, that doesn't mean one is the subset of the other.


Pascal wrote:
Our goal is not to kill werewolves, it's to save the village.  It just happens that lynching silent villagers helps us toward that goal.

I disagree that lynching silent villagers helps us. It hurts us. However... given the stage of the game and the ratios we had, it was technically better than the alternative--lynching a non-silent person and risking killing an innocent (and present) villager. Simply put, it was the lesser of two evils and in that case it was the right thing to do. Putting it in the context of the first night I actually believe that, in retrospect, we did the WRONG thing by lynching manygrams, especially so quickly. Let me explain:
Code:
-----Day1
2W (wolves)
6V (villagers)
2I (inactives)
**10 total, 6 to lynch
If Witty hadn't been the tough guy (stroke of luck), that day would have ended with the following:
Code:
-----Day2 [after lynching an inactive and wolf attack succeeding]
2W (wolves)
5V (villagers)
1I (inactives)
**8 total, 5 to lynch
Following the 'kill the silent' policy we would have lynched silent villager #2, resulting in:
Code:
-----Day3 [after lynching both inactives and both wolf attacks succeeding]
2W
4V
**6 total, 4 to lynch

Do you see a trend?
In each of the scenarios, the number of people needed to lynch = the number of people who are active villagers. i.e. Following the 'kill the silent' policy, and assuming the wolves didn't have terrible luck, we would eventually need ALL active villagers to vote unanimously and correctly. If even one of us fell prey to the misinformation of the wolves we would be statistically incapable of winning. By wasting our time lynching inactives by day, we were giving the wolves time to thin the flock by night and ensuring that our ratio never got any better.
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Romulus

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PostSubject: Re: Season 2: Werewolf - Shadow Pine - Day 3   10/10/2014, 12:17 pm

The previous post is in an alternate future to illustrate the flaws in the 'kill the silent' theory (a theory I, admittedly, prescribed to). Luckily, however, Odin (or whoever we believe in) was on our side and the two wolf attacks have been against the two ideal targets so what we currently face is better:
Code:
-----Day3
2W
5V
**7 total, 4 to lynch
I'm going to go ahead and list who I think are most likely to be the five villagers and I encourage others to do the same.

1. Termy (like I said, there's a chance he's a wolf but it's slim to none)
2. Myself (obviously everyone will say 'me')
3. Glendon (I really don't think he's acting wolf-like)
4. ?
5. ?

The remaining two spots belong to two of the following: (to the two of you on this lost who are innocent, don't be offended for being on this list, but rather, speak up)
* Nocturne (has said frustratingly little but that doesn't necessarily mean 'wolf')
* Pascal (don't like the guy but that's not a strong enough reason)
* Mongoose (vaguely suspicious for some reason)
* TBird (similar to Nocturne but more suspicious)
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Termy

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PostSubject: Re: Season 2: Werewolf - Shadow Pine - Day 3   10/10/2014, 12:44 pm

Romulus, your theory is awesome. I love it. Sadly, I was in the same thinking as you and glendon until last game. Werewolf 1, it was proven that the silent ones were the major factor at end game and the demise of the village. The silent ones did not contribute anything. I hate to waste a lynch on a silent ones, but, if we all see the bigger picture, we are removing "free kills" from the wolf. We are removing excess bodies that are not needed by the village that could be used as asset and backup to the wolves.

"we would eventually need ALL active villagers to vote unanimously and correctly" -- I agree totally. That is my aim.
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Pascal_B

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PostSubject: Re: Season 2: Werewolf - Shadow Pine - Day 3   10/10/2014, 1:19 pm

5 Villagers in ascending order of suspicious-ness

1. Me
2. Termy
3. Tbird*
4. Mongoose*
5. Nocturne*

2 Werewolves in descending order of suspicious-ness
1. Glendon*
2. Romulus*


*Subject to change without prior warning or reason necessary.  By reading this post you accept these terms and conditions.
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Mr. Slippy

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PostSubject: Re: Season 2: Werewolf - Shadow Pine - Day 3   10/10/2014, 1:44 pm

Werewolf:  Day 3 - Deadline 16th Oct 2014

Vote Majority - 4 Votes to Lynch

Votes:
Pascal_B (1 Vote of 4): Romulus

Glendon (3 Votes of 4): TBird, Mongoose87, Glendon

Pending Votes: 3 Remain
Termy, Nocturne, Pascal_B


Moderator Note:
Things are getting a bit heated here, I just want to make sure everyone is okay.  I know this game can be stressful at times, so if you need to. I will be here to talk in pvt.

---------------------------------------------------------------------
I told you not to tell her she smelt like hot dogs!
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Termy

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PostSubject: Re: Season 2: Werewolf - Shadow Pine - Day 3   10/10/2014, 2:04 pm

... lol, I guess I got my answer... you can vote for yourself
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Pascal_B

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PostSubject: Re: Season 2: Werewolf - Shadow Pine - Day 3   10/10/2014, 2:31 pm

Can someone remove their vote from Glendon?   Possibly you, Glendon I think there's more discussion to be had and someone dropping the hammer won't help that.  We can totally do it later though.
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Pascal_B

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PostSubject: Re: Season 2: Werewolf - Shadow Pine - Day 3   10/10/2014, 2:32 pm

Correction: Possibly you, Glendon. I think there's more discussion to be had and someone dropping the hammer won't help that.  We can totally do it later though.

Meant to have a period there.
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glendon

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PostSubject: Re: Season 2: Werewolf - Shadow Pine - Day 3   10/10/2014, 6:09 pm

THERE WILL BE BLOOD.


Unvote Glendon
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Mr. Slippy

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PostSubject: Re: Season 2: Werewolf - Shadow Pine - Day 3   10/10/2014, 6:15 pm

Werewolf:  Day 3 - Deadline 16th Oct 2014

Vote Majority - 4 Votes to Lynch

Votes:
Pascal_B (1 Vote of 4): Romulus

Glendon (2 Votes of 4): TBird, Mongoose87

Pending Votes: 4 Remain
Termy, Nocturne, Pascal_B, Glendon

---------------------------------------------------------------------
I told you not to tell her she smelt like hot dogs!
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Nocturne

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PostSubject: Re: Season 2: Werewolf - Shadow Pine - Day 3   10/10/2014, 6:22 pm

The ragged, tattered mass that is Nocturne awakes from his trance-like slumber.

"Sorry I've not been so active in the conversation as of yet, my brethren. The stars have been particularly fetching as of late. We must not be divided among our kith and kin but do not be fooled, lest the wolves in our fleece devour us all! My vellum is of Wit and of Passed Calibre! This, the fleece of our friends, brothers!"

"Oh, s'cuse me. I dozed off. Well then, what a great deal has been had here! Anyway, I agree that those who are too silent are implicitly helping the werewolf through inaction. Also this melodrama of martyrdom is amusing, Glendon, my boy, do step off that gallows and put your mind to work. Termy's miracle indicates one of two things; he's the Father among us and cloaked himself, or that someone knew he's a lamb and the Father walks among us unseen like a Good Shepherd, but His Gift is now spent. I affirm I am a Lamb, and Pascal is the most human after Termy and I. For now we talk, the Wolf among us will incriminate himself eventually. Tomorrow shall be a better day for my activities here among you."
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Termy

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PostSubject: Re: Season 2: Werewolf - Shadow Pine - Day 3   10/10/2014, 6:33 pm

Vote: Nocturne. Reason: See above! Smile
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Termy

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PostSubject: Re: Season 2: Werewolf - Shadow Pine - Day 3   10/10/2014, 6:35 pm

Just kidding! Unvote!
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Nocturne

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PostSubject: Re: Season 2: Werewolf - Shadow Pine - Day 3   10/10/2014, 6:43 pm

I will not vote against you, Termy. You're villager one way or another, like I am. Just like Pascal, just like Witty. Romulus's logic is reasonable but I have difficulty trusting most anyone this round.
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Pascal_B

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PostSubject: Re: Season 2: Werewolf - Shadow Pine - Day 3   10/10/2014, 7:14 pm

Nocturne wrote:
Termy's miracle indicates one of two things; he's the Father among us and cloaked himself, or that someone knew he's a lamb and the Father walks among us unseen like a Good Shepherd, but His Gift is now spent.

Nice of you to join us!  Termy isn't the priest, the priest isn't allowed to use the power on himself.  I'm fairly familiar with the mechanics of the role.
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Romulus

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PostSubject: Re: Season 2: Werewolf - Shadow Pine - Day 3   10/10/2014, 7:26 pm

Alright, I'm going to go ahead and abstain from choosing my own lynch target and give that 'vote by proxy' power to Term. *As I've said before, there is technically a chance that Term is a wolf but I see those odds as being so slim that he's almost guaranteed to be a good guy. My logic is as follows:

Despite what any of us may say, the five villager slots look like this
Code:
1. Termy
-------
6 way tie for the other four slots. (Romulus, TBird, Mongoose87, Nocturne, Pascal_B, Glendon)
Therefore, the ONLY person that can be 100% trusted to use their vote to try to kill a wolf is Termy--every other person (regardless of role) will be voting with their number one priority being self-preservation.
Now, my next question becomes "do I think Termy can handle the role any better than having 7 separate voices, two of which are wolves?"

Yes, I do. So, Termy, I'm looking at you buddy. You are the remaining bastion of wisdom and I'm sorry to put the choice squarely on your shoulders but that's what I believe is the logical choice.

Permanently VOTE for __x__, where x is the person Termy votes for.

Aside:To all people not named Termy, say what you will about the oddity of the decision but, just like my idol William O'Reilly, I have made my decision and won't change it.
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Romulus

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PostSubject: Re: Season 2: Werewolf - Shadow Pine - Day 3   10/10/2014, 7:30 pm

Again, Termy, use others for counsel, sure. But know that a third of the people trying to advise you are wolves. (Yes, that could include me but no matter what I say I won't be able to prove otherwise so you'll have to trust my logic since you can't trust my word)
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Mongoose87

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PostSubject: Re: Season 2: Werewolf - Shadow Pine - Day 3   10/10/2014, 11:07 pm

Heavens, I leave to work my field and look what I missed!

Romulus, I agree that Termy is a good barometer, since he is almost certain not a wolf, but handing a vote straight to him means if he is mislead, you are mislead with him.  You probably realize that, but I feel it's worth pointing out.

On the other hand:

Romulus wrote:
I will accept that "people that defend silent villagers" and "werewolves" share common ground, that doesn't mean one is the subset of the other.

What common goals could any villager have with a wolf?
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